Friday, December 14, 2007
The nonWinter Weather Woody Update
With the 10PM newscasts over and the fact I can still see the pavement in my driveway, I am starting to have doubts with the 5-7+ inch snow forecasts for Wichita. Obviously 2 of the 3 TV forecasts didn't or couldn't come to grips with admitting defeat at least in the Wichita area. Let me get this out in the open, yes, somewhere will get 10 inches, but I will not lose sleep tonight saying I will be right in writing that "most" of the weathermen missed the snow forecast for the Wichita area. Also let me get it out that I am sure some meteorologist will say, "Hal, forecasting isn't easy, if its so easy why aren't you doing it?" Hey, I do not have an AMS seal nor meteorology degree and don't pretend to have one, but lately as a whole the forecasting on the supposed "big" storms in Wichita has been lousy. I say majority because a different station the last 2 storms has been decent enough to back up at the last minute and admit that things looked a little differently then they originally thought. With the ice storm earlier this week, KWCH's Ross Janssen started to compare and contrast and alluded to the fact that the ice may not be so severe in Wichita because of a number of factors. With Friday's storm, KAKE's Jay Prater gets the accolades for saying that although he still had the map saying 5 in. for Wichita he thought the longer time went it was looking more like 3 in. for Wichita. One station not named in backing off its predictions of doom with neither of these storms, KSN. Can't a meteorologist admit defeat once in awhile? Congrats to Prater for saying that he may be wrong on Friday. To me, I think that resonates with viewers more than a meteorologist who will not back up on his forecasts and say, "Things don't look like I thought they were so I have to change and lower my predictions." -Hal
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20 comments:
First of all, this is a break in the storm. They said 5-7 by mid-morning tomorrow.
Secondly, I wouldn't consider 60,000 Kansans still without power from the ice storm, damages likely in the millions "missing the mark."
Temperatures stayed at freezing earlier in the week so Wichita was spared. That's a good thing. Had we gotten clobbered and no one said anything you would be complaining about that.
Again you criticize other people for doing their jobs, usually a damn good job, when you have yet to say what you profession is, what your credentials, etc.
Those who can, do...those who can't lecture.
The forecasts are for the entire viewing area. I am sure people in Hutchinson and Salina were happy they had warning for the ice storm. Well, if they had power back almost a week later I am sure they'd post on here.
As I am sure people in Hays, Dodge and elsewhere who have already seen 6 or 7 inches had warning.
You seem to forget that the stations in Wichita cover 80 or so of the 105 counties in Kansas. It's called the DMA. If you were in the business you'd know that. You'd also know people out there matter just as much as those in the metro.
12:40 update: 2 hours after Hal's post: Snowing again has been for about an hour.
Looks like someone needs to back off and admit they were wrong in their blog.
Kids, Kids, Kids,
Are you even competant enough to watch a forecast yet alone read a blog? Print out the post so you can study it a little closer. I think Hal was really focusing on the forecasts of the Wichita area. I think he was merely saying the weather boys should admit the snow totals may be off slightly for the DMA's biggest city.
4 inches of snow at my place and it's still coming down.
It's premature to say that when it's still coming down quite hard at what, 10:45 in the morning.
It points up a legitimate point, though.
The Wichita electronic media overblows EVERYTHING - weather, news, you name it.
It's all in the name of hysteria. I pay no attention whatsoever to "Screamin'" Freeman regardless of the season. Both 10 and 12 can be relied upon for a realistic forecast.
to be honest, looking at what has fallen and what they said, they all pretty much hit the mark, although Jay should have been more aggressive. I think he was trying for a "Wait and see" approach, perhaps to make himself not seem as hyped up as say, Freeman, but in this case KSN and KWCH made a good call. On the flip side I also hear parts of the state received 13" + which NO ONE had.
At least Freeman was right on one out of the 3 forecasts for the Wichita area. I include 3 being the ice storm, the snow of yesterday and then I am stretching but the squall line that moved in late this morning. Lets forget the fact he was wrong on the ice, and the forecasted 5 inches over night for Wichita giving a supposed 5-7 inches total, but lets not forget he did say the back side of the storm would bring an additional 2 inches. That happened. Thank goodness for that otherwise his forecast would have really struck out in Wichita. Must be nice when you can be considered successful when you are 1 for 3. I guess in baseball thats good.
You knock him (Freeman) but he does forecast, look at everything and is passionate about what he does. No, I don't work for 3, nor am I even in the TV business, but I have known him in the past to be an extremely passionate guy when it comes to weather. I know for a fact he has taken some of the less experienced meteorologists on his team (now and in the past) under his wing. Some of the past people have moved on to much bigger markets and have him to thank for a lot of his severe weather forecasting abilities.
Pay no attention to Hal. He has given us no indication what his qualifications are to judge so don't bother. Until he does he is simply attacking people for doing their job when he can probably do no better.
Anon 11- I will totally agree with you that Freeman is most certainly one of the most passionate weathermen out there. I am just throwing it out there, saying it would be refreshing to hear forecasters often, even at the last minute say, woah, we messed up at that 7+ inches isn't going to turn out and it will be more like 3. Now forecasting can be hard. For those saying well some areas got buried in snow. Hays got 13in, and thats a lot of snow, props to forecasting that. Yes they did get that right and I think they pin pointed that as or close to an area for a lot of snow. -Hal
Many of you need to take a deep breath and take a step back from your desks at your TV stations or your chroma boards. Some of you were saying that your boys were still going to be right on the forecasts late Friday night and Saturday morning. I thought this line from an article in the Eagle is interesting:
As it did with the ice storm, Wichita escaped the worst of the snow. Saturday's official snowfall measured 3 inches.
So there you have it. Hal wrote that Prater backed off his prediction for Wichita and lowered it to 3 and now it seems about right. Thanks Jay for admitting you might be slightly off and correcting yourself on the forecast.
national weather service reported more across town- and what about areas right in the metro that aren't Wichita proper that received more?
Correct.
That was the official total from the NWS out at the airport. I know from personal experience that places around town, especially out east, saw 4-5 inches or even more.
"...not as hyped up." Did anyone check out the weather service forecast? They were still saying 7-9" for Wichita Friday night. Is the government "hyping" the weather, too? Of course not. It's only the evil drive-by media. Surely it can't be a forecast based on science. A science that isn't perfect, but pretty darn good. They all must inflate the snow forecast to get more viewers. Yeah, that's it.
did anyone see yet another KSN debacle last night?
Anyone see that KAKE has posted for a Chief Meteorologist?
Does anyone know why KAKE is looking for a chief. I am very curious. Didn't he and his wife just have a baby. Did he get another job? Did he get fired? What is up with Jay Prater?
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